A maze of unpredictability, trust and connections

I love the City of London. It possesses a remarkable mix of ancient and modern architecture. On a recent visit, I was struck by the juxtaposition of the Bank of England set against some of the city’s most recent and modern skyscrapers. It’s one of the few places in the world where you can touch ancient history and within a few steps enter the most contemporary offices.  It’s a city which constantly strives towards the future, seeking to be at the forefront, whilst honouring much of what’s gone before at the same time. 

We can take inspiration from the city, particularly at this time of year as we reflect on 2023. What can we learn from the year, what’s worthy of our attention and how will this help to propel us forward? There are three critical themes that I would draw your attention to.

1) Unpredictability.  

Life is far less predictable than we would like. Businesses that based their strategies on the assumption of stability have struggled and in some cases failed. For example, the rapid increase in interest rates worldwide created a storm for Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, both of which failed and precipitated a run on various banks worldwide. In our islands, the acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS is one consequence, a decision that thankfully received regulatory approval in record time.  

Excellent leaders are able to plan ahead and create a better future whilst recognising that plans change and the future cannot be predicted with precision. They can hold this tension together, energised by both pursuing a plan and addressing unpredicted situations along the way. It takes courage, to create new ways forward and to embrace the unexpected. 

What predictions do you hold? Are these properly informed, or assumed based on what’s gone before? 

2) Trust.

Trust is essential if we want to lead well.  It’s possible to achieve results without trust, but not for long, if we want our people to enjoy the process.  Excellent leaders foster high-trust environments by telling the truth, relating well, being consistent, exercising good judgement and truly empowering their people.

Trust is seemingly becoming increasingly scarce. Whether measured through surveys (The Edelman Cycle of Distrust report is worth a read) or observed anecdotally, we’re less trusting of institutions, especially the government. Ancient wisdom shows us that basing decisions on what’s true and resisting hubris have always been the hallmarks of excellence. The Emperor’s new clothes fable is just one such example. And yet, we seemingly continue to be seduced by opinions that share our biases, people who are excessively charismatic or quick fixes that promise easy paths to our desires. Investors who followed Sam Bankman-Fried into FTX perhaps know this all too well.

AI, the subject of some fantastic science fiction, is moving quickly out of fantasy and into our reality. This will make it harder, for a while at least, for us to recognise what’s true and fake news.

It’s essential, if we are to be trustworthy, that we allow ourselves to reflect, pause and think when presented with information rather than rush instinctively down a path that may lead to nowhere (or worse).

 3) Connections.

Whilst meeting a client near Liverpool Street Station, I noticed the new Elizabeth line. My client told me that this has reduced the time it takes to get to Heathrow Airport significantly. London is a great place to connect, whether flying out of one of its four international airports or meeting people drawn from all corners of the world.

Our connections with other people are critical if we are to be well-informed, encouraged, challenged and able to pursue new opportunities. We are at our best when fostering great relationships with our long-standing connections as well as pursuing new connections. And yet it can be too easy to neglect both. We prioritise tasks over our relationships and revert to digital communication with thanks to messaging services rather than spend quality time together. There’s a place for speed sometimes, but not as often as we think. Given that the strength of our relationships is a significant factor in the quality of our life and work, we would do well to give far more time to them.

 As you take a brief moment here to reflect on the last year, ask yourself, who do you need to connect with, or reconnect with?

The Channel Islands need excellent leaders now more than ever. We’re here to support you, contact us to find out how.